I know it’s been a while since I’ve posted a report, but I think you’ll find this monthly oil market analysis greatly enlightening and enjoyable.
We seem to be trading on our own fundamentals.
In this 35 minute podcast, veteran oil analysts Andy Lebow and Jim Colburn of Commodity Research Group discuss the key factors influencing oil and petroleum product prices right now.
If you don’t have time for the whole conversation, I greatly recommend the discussion on products and global demand that starts around minute 17:00 or the ‘risks to the rally’ at minute 31:00.
As Andy says:
‘We seem to be trading on our own fundamentals’. How strange!
Topics and Time Stamps:
[02:00] March oil market recap
[03:45] US oil inventories analysis
[04:14] Why draws are coming, regardless of US production
[08:00] OPEC compliance, why rollover is key
[10:35] US production response, producer hedging
[12:30] Crude curve – Backwardation and spread options
[17:00] US product picture and global product demand
[26:40] Price expectations – seasonal plays and refinery turnarounds
[31:00] Risks to the rally
[33:20] Summary and what’s ahead
About the Experts
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.